How Big Things Get Done
Ho Chi Minh City’s first metro line project was approved in 2007 and was expected to serve its 10 million residents starting in 2018. However, after years of funding shortages and soaring costs, the project finally began operations in late 2024. According to Bloomberg News, the soaring costs had to be re-approved by Vietnam’s parliament, which was a painstakingly slow process. The delays and challenges were significant but unsurprising, as countless examples of megaprojects fail to stay within budget, meet deadlines, or deliver anticipated benefits.
The expertise and experience required to manage large-scale, complex projects are becoming increasingly crucial, particularly as the world tackles transformative initiatives such as combating climate change. In their book How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between, Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner explore why projects—both large and small—often fail. The authors highlight examples of megaprojects, including the Empire State Building in New York City, the Guggenheim Bilbao in Spain, and the Sydney Opera House in Australia, as well as smaller-scale endeavors like home kitchen renovations. One critical reason for failure is the lack of clarity about a project’s goals, especially when multiple stakeholders are involved. Establishing a clear and informed understanding of a project’s purpose is foundational to its success.
Another common pitfall is basing project estimates on best-case scenarios. The authors critique this overly optimistic approach and advocate for reference-class forecasting (RCF), a method used in countries such as the United States, China, Australia, South Africa, Ireland, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. Reference-class forecasting offers a more accurate framework for planning and execution, but its adoption faces significant hurdles:
Many organizations are reluctant to provide stakeholders with realistic projections of costs and timelines.
The “uniqueness bias” leads individuals to believe their projects are exceptional and incomparable.
The data-intensive nature of reference-class forecasting makes it time-consuming to implement.
In addition to addressing these challenges, How Big Things Get Done provides valuable takeaways. For example, modularization—breaking projects into manageable, repeatable units—can be particularly effective in tackling transformative initiatives like climate change mitigation. The authors emphasize the importance of exhaustive planning paired with swift delivery, which minimizes the time window for disruptive events or “black swans” to occur.
Another key factor is assembling an efficient, mission-aligned team. The authors stress that politics often play an inevitable role in large-scale projects due to the high stakes and competing interests involved. They caution project managers against using terms like “new,” “unique,” or “bespoke” as selling points, arguing that such language often leads to inflated costs and complexity.
The authors encourage readers to “think slowly but act fast”—to fail quickly and learn swiftly during project execution. They remind us that projects are not ends in themselves but means to achieve broader objectives. For instance, people build skyscrapers, host conferences, develop products, or write books to accomplish greater goals, not for the sake of the projects alone.
By incorporating tools such as reference-class forecasting, risk management, modularization, and Disney’s Pixar-style planning, project managers can significantly enhance their chances of success. Yet, even with these strategies, delays and budget overruns remain global challenges. How Big Things Get Done offers invaluable insights and serves as a timely, perhaps urgent, read as world leaders and planners grapple with increasingly complex and ambitious projects.
